CCU's 2014 Hurricane Forecast on the Mark

Date: 
Tuesday, November 25, 2014

As shown in the table below, the HUrricane Genesis & Outlook (HUGO) forecast was successful in range in every category with some exact hits. For example, the HUGO forecast value predicted the key accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) value to be 65 and the actual value was 64.7. Likewise the HUGO forecast range for the number of U.S. Atlantic Ocean Basin coastline land-falls was between 0 and 2 and the actual number of land-falls was 1. For the 2015 hurricane season, the HUGO team plans to further refine its Outlook and Land-Fall forecast capabilities.

Table 1 Summary of the 2014 HUGO North Atlantic Ocean Basin Outlook and Actual Season Outcome

Category

HUGO Forecast Value

HUGO Forecast Range

Long-term Average 

(1950-2013)

Observation

2014 Season

 

April

June

July

August

April

June

July

 

 

ACE

60

60

60

65*

[50~70]

[50~70]

[50~70]

102

65

TS

10

10

10

10

[9~11]

[8~11]**

[8~11]**

12

8

NH

5

4

4

4

[3~6]**

[3~6]**

[3~6]**

6.4

6

MH

1

1

1

1

[1~2]**

[1~2]**

[1~2]**

2.7

2

EC+GM

0.54

0.63

0.64

0.69

[0~2]**

[0~2]**

[0~2]**

1.60

1

ECLF

0.16

0.19

0.19

0.18

[0~1]**

[0~1]**

[0~1]**

0.65

1

GMLF

0.38

0.44

0.45

0.51

[0~1]**

[0~1]**

[0~1]**

0.95

0

* exact hit,** in range

ACE = accumulated cyclone energy; TS = named storms per season; NH = number of hurricanes; MH = major hurricanes (category 3 or higher); EC+GM = East Coast plus Gulf of  Mexico; ECLF = number of landfall hurricanes on the Atlantic seaboard; GMLF = number of landfall hurricanes along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

For more information about CCU’s HUGO Project, contact Len Pietrafesa at 843-349-4017 or 704-910-7047 or email lpietraf@coastal.edu.