As shown in the table below, the HUrricane Genesis & Outlook (HUGO) forecast was successful in range in every category but the named storms (off by 1) with some exact hits. For the 2016 hurricane season, the HUGO team plans to further refine its Outlook and Land-Fall forecast capabilities.
Table 1 Summary of the 2015 HUGO North Atlantic Ocean Basin Outlook and Actual Season Outcome
|
Category |
HUGO Forecast Value |
HUGO Forecast Range |
Long-term Average (1950-2014) |
Observation 2015 Season |
||||||
|
|
April |
June |
July |
August |
April |
June |
July |
August |
|
|
|
ACE |
55 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
[40~70] |
[30~60] |
[30~60] |
[30~60] |
102 |
56 |
|
TS |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
[7~10]** |
[6~9] |
[7~9] |
[6~10]** |
12 |
10 |
|
NH |
4 |
3* |
3* |
3* |
[3~6]** |
[2~5] |
[2~4] |
[2~5] |
6.1 |
3 |
|
MH |
2* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
[1~2]** |
[1~2]** |
[1~2]** |
[0~2]** |
2.6 |
2 |
|
EC+GM |
0.24 |
0.69 |
0.65 |
0.61 |
[0~2]** |
[0~2]** |
[0~2]** |
[0~2]** |
1.60 |
0 |
|
ECLF |
0.14 |
0.31 |
0.26 |
0.27 |
[0~1]** |
[0~1]** |
[0~1]** |
[0~1]** |
0.65 |
0 |
|
GMLF |
0.10 |
0.38 |
0.39 |
0.34 |
[0~1]** |
[0~1]** |
[0~1]** |
[0~1]** |
0.95 |
0 |
* exact hit,** in range
ACE = accumulated cyclone energy; TS = named storms per season; NH = number of hurricanes; MH = major hurricanes (category 3 or higher); EC+GM = East Coast plus Gulf of Mexico; ECLF = number of landfall hurricanes on the Atlantic seaboard; GMLF = number of landfall hurricanes along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
For more information about CCU’s HUGO Project, contact Len Pietrafesa at 843-349-4017 or 704-910-7047 or email lpietraf@coastal.edu.
