CCU's 2015 Hurricane Forecast on the Mark

Date: 
Monday, October 12, 2015

As shown in the table below, the HUrricane Genesis & Outlook (HUGO) forecast was successful in range in every category but the named storms (off by 1) with some exact hits. For the 2016 hurricane season, the HUGO team plans to further refine its Outlook and Land-Fall forecast capabilities.

Table 1 Summary of the 2015 HUGO North Atlantic Ocean Basin Outlook and Actual Season Outcome

Category

HUGO Forecast Value

HUGO Forecast Range

Long-term Average 

(1950-2014)

Observation

2015 Season

 

April

June

July

August

April

June

July

August

 

 

ACE

55

45

45

45

[40~70]

[30~60]

[30~60]

[30~60]

102

56

TS

8

8

8

8

[7~10]**

[6~9]

[7~9]

[6~10]**

12

10

NH

4

3*

3*

3*

[3~6]**

[2~5]

[2~4]

[2~5]

6.1

3

MH

2*

1

1

1

[1~2]**

[1~2]**

[1~2]**

[0~2]**

2.6

2

EC+GM

0.24

0.69

0.65

0.61

[0~2]**

[0~2]**

[0~2]**

[0~2]**

1.60

0

ECLF

0.14

0.31

0.26

0.27

[0~1]**

[0~1]**

[0~1]**

[0~1]**

0.65

0

GMLF

0.10

0.38

0.39

0.34

[0~1]**

[0~1]**

[0~1]**

[0~1]**

0.95

0

* exact hit,** in range

ACE = accumulated cyclone energy; TS = named storms per season; NH = number of hurricanes; MH = major hurricanes (category 3 or higher); EC+GM = East Coast plus Gulf of  Mexico; ECLF = number of landfall hurricanes on the Atlantic seaboard; GMLF = number of landfall hurricanes along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

For more information about CCU’s HUGO Project, contact Len Pietrafesa at 843-349-4017 or 704-910-7047 or email lpietraf@coastal.edu.