HUGO team updates 2015 hurricane outlook (June 2015)

Date: 
Tuesday, June 16, 2015

The notable changes in the outlooks in June versus those of April are:

  1. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) estimate has dropped from 55 to 45.
  2. The most likely number of named storms (TS) remained the same at 8.
  3. The most likely number of hurricanes (NH) has dropped from 4 to 3.
  4. The most likely number of major hurricanes (MH) has dropped from 2 to 1.
  5. The probability of Hurricane Landfalls on the US Gulf Coast States and the US Eastern Seaboard (ECLF), while collectively still being, 0 (highest), 1 (lower but still, next highest) and 2 (lowest), has greatly increased in probability/possibility.

In summary, there may be fewer named storms and fewer hurricanes but while the probability of any hurricane land fall is still lower then the long term averages, the probability has risen.

For more information about CCU’s HUGO Project, contact Len Pietrafesa at 843-349-4017 or 704-910-7047 or email lpietraf@coastal.edu.

Category

Forecast Value

Forecast Range

Historical Average
(1950-2014)

 

April

June

April

June

 

ACE

55

45

[40~70]

[30~60]

102

TS

8

8

[7~10]

[6~9]

12

NH

4

3

[3~6]

[2~5]

6.1

MH

2

1

[1~2]

[1~2]

2.6

ECLF

0.14

0.31

[0~1]

[0~1]

0.65

GMLF

0.10

0.38

[0~1]

[0~1]

0.95

ACE = accumulated cyclone energy; TS = named storms per season; NH = number of hurricanes; MH = major hurricanes (category 3 or higher); ECLF = number of landfall hurricanes on the Atlantic seaboard; GMLF = number of landfall hurricanes along the U.S. Gulf Coast.